Quantifying uncertainty in LCA-modelling of waste management systems

Uncertainty analysis in LCA studies has been subject to major progress over the last years. In the context of waste management, various methods have been implemented but a systematic method for uncertainty analysis of waste-LCA studies is lacking. The objective of this paper is (1) to present the sources of uncertainty specifically inherent to waste-LCA studies, (2) to select and apply several methods for uncertainty analysis and (3) to develop a general framework for quantitative uncertainty assessment of LCA of waste management systems. The suggested method is a sequence of four steps combining the selected methods: (Step 1) a sensitivity analysis evaluating the sensitivities of the results with respect to the input uncertainties, (Step 2) an uncertainty propagation providing appropriate tools for representing uncertainties and calculating the overall uncertainty of the model results, (Step 3) an uncertainty contribution analysis quantifying the contribution of each parameter uncertainty to the final uncertainty and (Step 4) as a new approach, a combined sensitivity analysis providing a visualisation of the shift in the ranking of different options due to variations of selected key parameters. This tiered approach optimises the resources available to LCA practitioners by only propagating the most influential uncertainties.     

Waste collection systems for recyclables: An environmental and economic assessment for the municipality of Aarhus (Denmark)

Recycling of paper and glass from household waste is an integrated part of waste management in Denmark, however, increased recycling is a legislative target. The questions are: how much more can the recycling rate be increased through improvements of collection schemes when organisational and technical limitations are respected, and what will the environmental and economic consequences be? This was investigated in a case study of a municipal waste management system. Five scenarios with alternative collection systems for recyclables (paper, glass, metal and plastic packaging) were assessed by means of a life cycle assessment and an assessment of the municipality’s costs. Kerbside collection would provide the highest recycling rate, 31% compared to 25% in the baseline scenario, but bring schemes with drop-off containers would also be a reasonable solution. Collection of recyclables at recycling centres was not recommendable because the recycling rate would decrease to 20%. In general, the results showed that enhancing recycling and avoiding incineration was recommendable because the environmental performance was improved in several impact categories. The municipal costs for collection and treatment of waste were reduced with increasing recycling, mainly because the high cost for incineration was avoided. However, solutions for mitigation of air pollution caused by increased collection and transport should be sought.     

Greenhouse gas emissions from home composting of organic household waste

The emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) is a potential environmental disadvantage of home composting. Because of a lack of reliable GHG emission data, a comprehensive experimental home composting system was set up. The system consisted of six composting units, and a static flux chamber method was used to measure and quantify the GHG emissions for one year composting of organic household waste (OHW). The average OHW input in the six composting units was 2.6–3.5 kg week^?1 and the temperature inside the composting units was in all cases only a few degrees (2–10 °C) higher than the ambient temperature. The emissions of methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) were quantified as 0.4–4.2 kg CH₄ Mg^?1 input wet waste (ww) and 0.30–0.55 kg N₂O Mg^?1 ww, depending on the mixing frequency. This corresponds to emission factors (EFs) (including only CH₄ and N₂O emissions) of 100–239 kg CO₂-eq. Mg^?1 ww. Composting units exposed to weekly mixing had the highest EFs, whereas the units with no mixing during the entire year had the lowest emissions. In addition to the higher emission from the frequently mixed units, there was also an instant release of CH₄ during mixing which was estimated to 8–12% of the total CH₄ emissions. Experiments with higher loads of OHW (up to 20 kg every fortnight) entailed a higher emission and significantly increased overall EFs (in kg substance per Mg^?1 ww). However, the temperature development did not change significantly. The GHG emissions (in kg CO₂-eq. Mg^?1 ww) from home composting of OHW were found to be in the same order of magnitude as for centralised composting plants.     

Chemical contamination assessment of Gulf of Mexico oysters in response to hurricanes Katrina and Rita

Hurricane Katrina made landfall on August 29, 2005 and caused widespread devastation along the central Gulf Coast states. Less than a month later Hurricane Rita followed a similar track slightly west of Katrina’s. A coordinated multi-agency response followed to collect water, sediment and tissue samples for a variety of chemical, biological and toxicological indicators. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Status and Trends Program (NS&T) participated in this effort by measuring chemical contamination in sediment and oyster tissue as part of the Mussel Watch Program, a long-term monitoring program to assess spatial and temporal trends in a wide range of coastal pollutants. This paper describes results for contaminants measured in oyster tissue collected between September 29 and October 10, 2005 and discusses the results in the context of Mussel Watch and its 20-year record of chemical contamination in the region and the nation. In general, levels of metals in oyster tissue were higher then pre- hurricane levels while organic contaminants were at or near record lows. No contaminant reported here exceeded the FDA action level for food safety.     

University engagement and regional sustainability initiatives: some Danish experiences

With an outset in ‘sustainability’ defined as a continuous process requiring balance between (the emergence of) problems and our ability and capability to solve them using four distinct capitals available, i.e. natural, production, human and intellectual, and social capital, a model of universities as factories is used. The model suggests that the most notable products of a university being graduates, and knowledge in the form of books, journal articles etc., i.e. human and intellectual capital. As a consequence, these are also the most important impacts from a university. Using the case of Aalborg University, Denmark, the linkages (actual, potential and missing) between academic work in research and education and sustainability initiatives are explored. The focus is both on the university's core activities as a provider of research and education and on the university's activities as an organisation, i.e. its own operation and its accounting for this. It is suggested that systematic engagement activities could benefit both the university's ability to manage internal university processes (by learning from its peers) and its ability to produce the right graduates and knowledge. As a consequence, the main societal benefit would be the ability to better cope with emerging problems endangering the sustainable development of our societies. It is concluded that Aalborg University with its long tradition for project-based and problem-oriented learning in fact has every opportunity to be able to lead by example and become the link to sustainability.     

Bioremediation of TCE in a fractured limestone aquifer using a novel horizontal passive biobarrier

This article discusses a project demonstrating the successful use of a novel horizontal biobarrier approach to protect a fractured limestone aquifer from continuing contamination while passive bioremediation of the overlying clay till source area is in progress. The emplacement of the biobarrier has significantly reduced the concentrations of chlorinated ethenes and dechlorination activity in the limestone aquifer, promoting complete reductive dechlorination of the trichloroethene plume. The biobarrier strategy has thus met the challenge of protecting the limestone from the overlying overburden. Direct GeoProbe injections performed in the source area, which consist of a clay till overburden, have also reduced the contaminant concentrations in the clay till due to enhanced dechlorination activity; however, repeat injections may be required to address the areas of the till in which the injectate has not yet been distributed. The time frame for remediating the source area in the till is expected to be on the order of a decade. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Using statistical power analysis as a tool when designing a monitoring program: experience from a large-scale Swedish landscape monitoring program

The National Inventory of Landscapes in Sweden (NILS) is a large-scale, sample-based monitoring program that combines aerial photointerpretation with field inventory to follow landscape-scale biophysical conditions and changes. A statistical power analysis was conducted before the NILS program began in 2003 with the aim to determine an appropriate sampling effort and compare some design alternatives. The chosen sampling effort was then evaluated in a second power analysis conducted just before the first 5-year re-inventory rotation started. The latter power analysis revealed which magnitude of actual change might be detected within the future for different central monitoring variables. This article reports results from these power analyses and discusses our experiences in using power analysis as a tool for designing large-scale monitoring programs. The results showed that even quite small changes in the more common variables, such as land cover types and more common plant species, can be detected on the national scale. However, on the regional scale, or for less common variables, changes will be more difficult to detect. The power analyses have revealed the size level of changes that will be possible to detect. The results have also generated incentives for further improvements of NILS, e.g., input to the modification and revision of the variable content, flow and hierarchy, and incentives for launching other complementary monitoring programs connected to NILS. They have also created a basis for a better and more user-oriented communication of results from NILS to different stakeholders.     

Multi-decadal changes in tundra environments and ecosystems: synthesis of the International Polar Year-Back to the Future project (IPY-BTF)

Understanding the responses of tundra systems to global change has global implications. Most tundra regions lack sustained environmental monitoring and one of the only ways to document multi-decadal change is to resample historic research sites. The International Polar Year (IPY) provided a unique opportunity for such research through the Back to the Future (BTF) project (IPY project #512). This article synthesizes the results from 13 papers within this Ambio Special Issue. Abiotic changes include glacial recession in the Altai Mountains, Russia; increased snow depth and hardness, permafrost warming, and increased growing season length in sub-arctic Sweden; drying of ponds in Greenland; increased nutrient availability in Alaskan tundra ponds, and warming at most locations studied. Biotic changes ranged from relatively minor plant community change at two sites in Greenland to moderate change in the Yukon, and to dramatic increases in shrub and tree density on Herschel Island, and in subarctic Sweden. The population of geese tripled at one site in northeast Greenland where biomass in non-grazed plots doubled. A model parameterized using results from a BTF study forecasts substantial declines in all snowbeds and increases in shrub tundra on Niwot Ridge, Colorado over the next century. In general, results support and provide improved capacities for validating experimental manipulation, remote sensing, and modeling studies.